SHFE tin prices rebounded after a slight decline, while the spot market remained sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 15, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened slightly lower in the night session, then fluctuated at lows before rebounding modestly to around 265,300 yuan/mt near the close, down 0.33% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to CPCA data, pickup truck sales reached 48,000 units in June 2025, up 7.5% YoY but down 7.4% MoM, remaining at a five-year high. January-June 2025 sales totaled 307,000 units, up 16.4% YoY. (Bullish★) (2) Sources indicate Panasonic Holdings postponed full operations at its new US EV battery plant after its key client Tesla reported sluggish sales, prompting production plan reassessment. (Bullish★) (3) Ministry of Public Security statistics show China's automobile ownership reached 460 million by June-end 2025, including 36.89 million NEVs (10.27% penetration). Pure EV ownership stood at 25.539 million (69.23% of NEVs). H1 2025 saw 5.622 million new NEV registrations, up 27.86% YoY to a record high, accounting for 44.97% of total new vehicle registrations.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV sector: Tin bar orders declined in east China post-installation rush, lowering operating rates at some producers; Electronics: End-users in south China entered off-season amid high tin prices, maintaining wait-and-see sentiment with only essential orders; Other sectors: Stable demand from tinplate and chemical industries without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Downstream purchase willingness weakened notably after prices rebounded above 266,000 yuan/mt, with most restocking conducted via "small-volume, multi-batch" strategies. Smelters held firm on prices but faced limited actual transactions.
[The provided information is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid substituting independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]